Joe Wilcox

It's Not the Myth, But Fight Over the Man

Bill Taylor’s June 23 Harvard Business post, “Decoding Steve Jobs: Trust the Art, Not the Artist,” is shit hitting the fan. Today, for some strange reason.

Yesterday, Pete Mortensen (at Cult of Mac) posted “Fast Company Co-Founder Has it Right: Steve’s Not a Role Model.” He generally praised Bill’s take on Steve:

Apparently, it’s deeply offensive to suggest that what makes Steve great are the exact qualities that typically make for bad management at most companies. He micro-manages every aspect of Apple, has been known to fire people with minimal cause, and perennially runs the risk of out-shining his company— which is particularly problematic when his health problems continue to cast into doubt his long-term prospects as CEO.

What Taylor is pointing out should be self-evident: Steve is a once-in-a-generation genius, and the reason he can break all of the rules is because he’s an extraordinary individual. If you want to compete with him and be great yourself, the worst possible thing you can do is try to act like him.

Vincent Ferrari (at Apple Thoughts) apparently finds Bill and his opinions to be highly offensive, and he goes on the offensive. Vincent writes:

The truth is, there’s nothing about Bill Taylor that equates to real-world business experience. Unlike Jobs, Taylor has never been a CEO of a company. In his own bio he calls himself a writer, speaker, and entrepreneur, although except for founding the massive flop Fast Company which, as far as I know, no one outside of Silicon Valley reads at all, none of his business ventures have brought him any great successes otherwise he wouldn’t be blogging for a publication.

He may be a successful writer, but he’s not been a successful CEO, proving that he’s probably spent entirely too much time talking about business theory and not enough time actually doing business. At least he’s good at linkbaiting, though.

By contrast, Ian Betteridge (at Technovia) agrees with Pete:

Pete’s bang on the money here. Jobs does a million things that would be disastrous for 99.99% of other managers to copy. He’s a one-off, and while there are lessons that other businesses can learn from Apple, there’s few lessons about management that you can learn from the personal style or Steve.

I purposely have not excerpted from Bill Taylor’s post. It’s worth a read and forming your own opinion.

What I’ve learned from personal experience, writing about Steve Jobs touches off deep emotions in some people. There really is a cult of personality here, which, by the way, is an important aspect missing from Bill’s post.

Steve Jobs is a master marketer, purveyor of good taste and pitchman for hope. Apple products consistently focus on features that are easy to sell and imbue aspiration. Meaning: Your life will be better for using them.

I won’t debate the appropriateness or manner of Steve’s management style. But I will say this: He consistently demonstrates good taste, and that’s not an attribute you can teach someone.

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All in the Family Pack

Well, well, the Web is abuzz today with rumors that Microsoft may finally be prepping a Windows “Family Pack.” Some people preordering Windows 7 might feel gipped. Perhaps they should.

Overnight, Kristan Kenny set off quite the ruckus about a possible Windows 7 Home Premium Family Pack. What’s your doing on your day off? Kristan lives in Nova Scotia, and yesterday was Canada Day. I guess he spent his free day mucking around the latest leaked Windows 7 build. He uncovered from the licensing agreement:

Family Pack. If you are a ‘Qualified Family Pack User’, you may install one copy of the software marked as ‘Family Pack’ on three computers in your household for use by people who reside there. Those computers are the ‘licensed computers’ and are subject to these license terms. If you do not know whether you are a Qualified Family Pack User, visit go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?Linkid=141399 or contact the Microsoft affiliate serving your country.

Whoa. A possible Family Pack would make sense of Microsoft’s pre-order deal for two Windows 7 editions.

The pre-order deal—50 bucks for Windows 7 Home Premium and 100 for Professional—baffled me from the first rumors. What was the real benefit for Microsoft offering the short-term promotion; short being June 26 to July 11. Microsoft doesn’t give much of anything away, at least when it comes to selling Windows.

Last week I tweeted:

Microsoft should have positioned the $50 Windows 7 preorder as a pseudo-family pack. Your family can get two for less than the price of one.

Now, I can see a reason why Microsoft didn’t take such an approach. The regular Windows 7 Home Premium upgrade price is $119.99. Based on pre-order pricing, it’s not inconceivable for Microsoft to offer a Family Pack upgrade for $149.99. Microsoft already offers a three-license version of Office, for the same price.

Ed Bott thinks pricing would be higher. If he’s right, people who pre-ordered Windows 7 Home Premium will have much less to gripe about. Ed writes:

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Microsoft prices the Family Pack at $189, which is $10 less than Apple’s Family Pack (although Apple’s license is good for five Macs in a single household).

Ed is right about current pricing. But Snow Leopard, which releases is September, will be available for $49, as Family Pack, for Leopard users. Earlier Mac OS X users must buy the Mac Box Set, which also comes with iLife `09 and iWork `09. The Leopard Family Pack currently sells for $169. No matter what Microsoft charges, anything more than $49 is lots more than Apple.

Ed pointed out after I posted that Apple will charge $229 for the Snow Leopard Family Pack (with iLife `09 and iWork `09). Apple is rewarding Leopard upgraders, while actually penalizing other Mac customers. They’ll pay more by every measure, whether buying a single license—granted with the other software—for $40 more than Leopard’s $129 price or $30 more than the Family Pack price. Ouch.

Still, Microsoft is long overdue offering a Family Pack, whatever the price. The question everyone should ask: Will the discounted upgrade be available for Windows XP users? Based on past Microsoft licensing practices, the answer would be no. But the company is slowly changing its ways. Marketing is improving, as has Windows product development and management. A Family Pack for all would be refreshing and get the install base to move faster to Microsoft’s newest, safest operating system.

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How Does 'Incremental' Define Apple?

I’d like to discuss how Apple innovates, which I understand very well. I posted about Apple’s incremental product strategy last September at Apple Watch: “Apple Demands a High Price to Be Cool.”

The pattern is consistent: Apple launches a “one more thing” product with modest hardware features but something else nevertheless killer—something people want. During the launch, Steve performs his marketing magic, demonstrating how this “one more thing” product will make peoples’ lives better.

Often the product lacks something compared to competing wares but offers something more elsewhere. That’s merely a function of Apple choosing different priorities. Some examples:

• Original iPhone lacked 3G, video and MMS, but offered better UI, capacitive touchscreen, media playback and better calling features.
• iPhone 3G lacks video and MMS, but added 3G, GPS and other features turning the smartphone into a pocket computer, media player and game console.
• MacBook Pro’s screen resolution is lower than Windows PCs in same price class but offers features like backlit keyboard and non-removable, longer-life battery.

What It Costs to be Cool
Apple’s priorities are often different from competitors, and customers usually benefit from them. But I’ll contend—and this statement will draw flaming comments—that, by comparison, some Apple products offer less hardware capabilities than those from competitors. That’s a changing trend, by the way, and I’ll explain its importance in a few paragraphs.

Once Apple releases that “one more thing,” the company then iterates—incrementally improves—the product over time. The process is essential to Apple maximizing margins. “One more thing” products typically have initial higher selling prices or same as the replaced product. They’re cool. People are willing to pay more, and Apple certainly doesn’t discourage them from doing so.

The Windows PC market trend is about offering faster processors and other features for less money. Apple offers more for more money or about the same, later lowering prices. A recent, good example is the unibody 17-inch MacBook Pro, which in January Apple priced the same, $2799, as its predecessor but added several cool, new features—with long-life, non-removable battery being perhaps the most notable. A month ago, Apple dropped the price by $300.

“One more thing” is very much about selling the coolest thing. Plenty of buyers demand the newest, coolest thing—and they’re willing to pay a premium price to get it. To many of these buyers, the tech gadget is as much an accessory—statement of their coolness, superiority—as useful product.

Apple engages in tried-and-true retail practice. It’s good business. Clothing stores take a similar approach. There are teens who must have the newest wears from Aeropostale, American Eagle, Gap or Hollister at full price; they can’t wait for sales. They want to be cool. Apple sometimes charges more for fashion, just like clothiers. At introduction, the black MacBook cost $150 more than the white model simply for the color.

As a product’s lifecycle progresses and Apple maximizes margins at the front end, incremental improvements begin. The company typically starts by improving the hardware for the same price. Later, Apple adds better hardware or features and cuts the price. Eventually, Apple retires the product and introduces another “one more thing.”

Apple Tweaks the Incremental Model
More recently, Apple adjusted its longstanding product practice of introducing something splashy, maximizing margins at the front end, incrementally improving the product while lowering prices and replacing the product with the new splashy thing. That pattern has been cyclical: “one more thing” followed by “same, only better” leading to another “one more thing.”

Apple didn’t retire the white MacBook when introducing new unibody models in October. The company lowered the MacBook price to $999 and continued to incrementally improve the laptop by iterations. Similarly, Apple didn’t retire the iPhone 3G when releasing the iPhone 3GS. The 8GB 3G is available for $99, or half the cost at introduction.

Apple already has maximized margins on both products. Their continued manufacturing and distribution is fairly cheap compared to their “one more thing” days. For $99 or $999, Apple gives away little while potentially picking up lots more market share. The 13-inch MacBook Pro is absolutely cooler and more desirable than the white MacBook. Many people will pay the $1,199 or $1,499 prices for the smaller MacBook Pro. Others will see $1,000 as a price barrier they won’t cross; for them, Apple has the white MacBook.

The $99 iPhone 3G will be a deal maker for many people pining for an iPhone. Meanwhile, those buyers looking for the coolest new features can get an iPhone 3GS, with better features and more storage capacity than its predecessors, for the same $199 price. Apple loses little in margins, but opens up sales to more budget buyers while offering something cooler to people willing to spend about the same as the older iPhone.

Something else really important about Apple’s cyclical, incremental product strategy: SKUs. The company’s product lines are surprisingly trim compared to Windows PC competitors or even retailers in other markets. Fewer choices works well for Apple. For example: MacBook, MacBook Pro and MacBook Air. MacBook has one configuration and MacBook Air two. MacBook Pro: 13-inch, two configs; 15-inch, three, 17-inch, one.

Apple’s streamlined product family approach helps reduce manufacturing and marketing costs, maximize margins and make easier and clearer to potential buyers incremental improvements over time. It’s a well thought out and implemented strategy.

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I Was Wrong About Laptop Hunter Sheila

She is an artist, and, on second consideration, Sheila certainly does look like a filmmaker.

Sheila Dvorak is star of Microsoft’s newest “Laptop Hunters” commercial, which is currently airing during U.S. prime time. I saw the ad last night, I believe during Fox’s “Fringe,” which I had previously recorded.

On Monday, I asked: “Did Laptop Hunter Sheila Find Treasure?” I also asserted that first Laptop HunterLauren fit more the part of artist than Sheila.

She wrote in comments: “You don’t have to look like an artist to be an artist.http://www.imdb.com/name/nm2307936/” Well, there she is —on IMDB. Sheila looks every bit the filmmaker. She was associate producer for “Children of Invention” and directed short film “Vacation Bible Lemonade.” Whoops, it’s not smart to sing rap at vacation Bible camp.

Funny, Sheila’s IMDB popularity is down 11 percent this week. What? Does Hollywood’s Macintosh-obsessed artist social club spurn PC users? Maybe, maybe not. See, Sheila is in good company. Steven Spielberg is down 7 percent, Quentin Tarantino is down 22 percent and Loveleen Tandan, co-director of 2008 Best Picture “Slumdog Millionaire,” is down 9 percent. JJ Abrams is up 56%, but, d`oh. “Star Trek” opens today. By the way, Vacation Bible Lemonade popularity is up 13 percent.,/p>

I asked back in comments how Sheila liked her new laptop, the HP HDX 16t. In the commercial, Sheila picks the HP over a Mac and several Windows laptops, including a Toshiba model. I really wasn’t expecting a reply. But she did, correcting me again:

So far, so good. I have been able to work on my new screenplay in Final Draft, and I’m editing a video project using Adobe Premiere Elements. When I’ve finished a cut and it’s available online, your blog will be the first to know.

I had faulted the commercial for completely ignoring software as buying consideration, especially for a filmmaker. Hardware was the focus. I also questioned whether an entertainment laptop would be right fit for a filmmaker. Sheila has corrected me. Thanks, Sheila. I look forward to learning about that “finished cut.”

Full-length Vacation Bible Lemonade is available from IMDB. It’s clever. “Jesus Bo Beep, listen to me,” little Lucia sings. I love films that contrast cultures and lifestyles. Classic, from the camp administrator” “We’re trying to save souls here, not run a day care.”

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Did Laptop Hunter Sheila Find Treasure?

Microsoft’s newest “Laptop Hunters” commercial, embedded below, is the most ambitious yet and perhaps most misleading. The buyer’s budget is bigger and her laptop criteria slaps Apple where it hurts: Among core constituency of artists, designers and filmmakers.

Shelia is searching for a computer with a “fast processor, big screen, and I really need something that’s going to able to cut video.” All for under $2,000. “I’m open to any brand,” she says. But the only Apple computer in Sheila’s price range is the $1,999 15.4-inch MacBook Pro. She rightly recognizes that 2GB of RAM won’t be enough memory.

Mac defenders will love this: Sheila dismisses the Mac as option, while touching the higher priced $2,399 15.4-inch model (The price is Fry’s Electronics; Apple charges $100 more). Many Mac fans will dismiss the commercial simply because of the one faux pas.

Sheila settles on the HP HDX 16t, which is sold as an entertainment PC, not a laptop for aspiring filmmakers. HP lists the preconfigured model—with 2.4GHz processor, 16-inch display (1366 x 768 resolution), 4GB of RAM, 512MB (dedicated) nVidia GeForce 9600M GT graphics, 500GB hard drive and Windows XP Home Premium 64-bit—for $1,099.99. Assuming the configuration is correct, Shelia saved about $900 off the 15.4-inch MacBook Pro, which has half the RAM, graphics memory and storage capacity of the HDX 16t.

Subtle differences would offer minor performance benefits: DDR3 memory in the Apple versus DDR2 for the PC, for example. The MacBook’s multitouch trackpad could be more useful to an artist. But the differences are surprisingly small, especially considering the enormous price difference between the two computers. Then there are the HP’s advantages of all that storage capacity and graphics and system memory for editing video.

But hardware isn’t the only consideration when buying a computer. There are very good reasons why artists love their Macs, with software being near the top. Mac OS X 10.5 smokes Windows Vista, and Apple packs in iLife, which is a surprisingly satisfactory for producing podcasts and editing video. Software should have been part of Shelia’s buying decision making, which, of course, wouldn’t work as well for Microsoft marketing.

Mac defenders that ding the commercial for overlooking software would be right to do so. Apple’s Final Cut Studio is hugely popular among filmmakers (or so Apple’s marketing would have us all believe), and it’s not available for Windows.

Then there is the aforementioned questionable marketing position, where HP touts the HDX 16t for entertainment and Apple the MacBook Pro for creative professionals. People just like Sheila.

Still, the commercial works well, even for what it leaves out. Like the three earlier Laptop Hunters commercials, Microsoft seeks to:

• Show the overall value of Windows PCs
• Show better value against Macs
• Help OEM partners gain sales/marketshare at premium price points

I’ll focus on the second and third objectives. “I’m a PC and an artist,” Sheila proclaims. People usually associate artists with Macs, not PCs. Microsoft seeks to upturn some of that “artists are only Mac users” stereotype. The jab would be more effective coming from first Laptop Hunter Lauren, who looks more like an artist than Sheila.

The third objective is one I harped on at Microsoft Watch. Contrary to public pundit opinion, the commercials are not about lower buying prices. Microsoft and its OEM partners already control the market for low-cost PCs, where Apple simply doesn’t compete. NPD considers computers priced $1,000 or more as premium PCs, among which Apple marketshare is about 80 percent at U.S. retail. The first of the four Laptop Hunters had a budget of $1,000 or less; the second and third $1,500 or less; and the most recent $2,000 or less. These budgets are way above average selling prices for PCs at U.S. retail. Microsoft isn’t marketing to budget buyers, but people with real computing needs for which they are willing to pay for. The same people who might otherwise buy Macs.

Artists accustomed to Macs will pay much more than did Shelia. What she really needed was the $2,799 17-inch MacBook Pro, which screen resolution would have been much, much, much better for her needs. Shelia made the mistake common among computer shoppers: Size matters. Bigger is better. No, Sheila, screen resolution matters, particularly for art, photography or video.

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Joe Wilcox: A New Beginning

My job as editor of Microsoft Watch concluded on April 30. From that ending starts a new beginning and repurposing. For years, I’ve used joewilcox.com as a personal blog—my rants for just about everything. Today it takes on a new role as a broader voice and way I will support my family. Can people really make a living by blogging? I plan to prove they can, but not in the way most bloggers pursue.

There is a place for tried-and-true principles of publication-reader relationships that the search engine obsessed new-old media has ignored. SEO doesn’t stand for search engine optimization, but search engine obsession—and it’s sure to bring many bloggers, journalists and news or mew media organizations to ruin.

Nicholas Carr’s post, “The writing is on the paywall,” is the most astute assessment I have read yet about the problems plaguing journalism today. He writes:

The essential problem with the newspaper business today is that it is suffering from a huge imbalance between supply and demand. What the Internet has done is broken the geographical constraints on news distribution and flooded the market with stories, with product. Supply so far exceeds demand that the price of the news has dropped to zero…The overabundance of supply means, as well, an overabundance of advertising inventory. So not only can’t you charge for your product, but you can’t make decent ad revenues either. Bad times.

Nicholas is absolutely right. News value is zero. There is simply too much of it. That’s the major reason I stopped blogging news at Microsoft Watch and shifted more to news analysis and news commentary. I hoped to add value that stood out from “the overabundance of supply.” The value loss there I intend to turn to gain here.

Journalism is undergoing a massive transformation exacerbated by the weak economy. People that blame the Internet shouldn’t. Change is inevitable. Technology reporting is good example. It hasn’t gone away, but changed. Sites like Boy Genius Report, Engadget or Gizmodo simply replaced older media—some of it dot-com 1.0 new media—with something else.

But the quest for readers has given way to an obsession with traffic. Click. Click. Click. It’s a topic I will write more about. This site—and what might later replace it—won’t obsess about traffic. The focus will be readers and building a community of them. You matter to me, not Google search. You.

For reasons forgotten, I originally called my personal site “Chronicle of Technology, Culture and Stupidity.” For now, I’m sticking with that. I will continue to blog about Microsoft—and Apple. Also, there is Nokia, which global technology influence is lost on Americans—particularly iPhone-obsessed bloggers and journalists. But the writing will be much broader, too, particularly where technology, culture and lifestyle intersect. If you’ve come here looking for continued Microsoft commentary and analysis, you will find it. But, please be prepared for much more.

I am as of yet undecided about technology platforms. This first post was published on hosted WordPress. But I am considering TypePad for the advantages of its quick-and-easy publishing and promotion platform. I’m also thinking about more robust content management systems for which there can be community, such as Drupla or ExpressionEngine. It’s disappointing that EE development seems to have stalled at v1.6 (What happened to 2.0?). I would gratefullly accept any unsolicited advice about blogging platforms.

[Update: July 4, 2009; I am migrating the blog to Tumblr.]

With that, I would like to welcome you to the new joewilcox.com—and thank you for stopping by.

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Predicting the Housing POP!

This morning, I reposted from my old TypePad blog “Pop Goes the Housing Bubble,” from August 2005. I will move other select posts to Tumblr over the coming months. I say select, as Tumblr has no import function of which I am aware. If I’ve got to manually move posts, I’ll be choosy about it.

I still remember writing that summer post nearly four years ago. It was prophetic in a way, but in so many others understates what actually has come to pass.